Will Cell Phones Catch On?

One of my favorite stories about predicting future trends comes from an MBA class in Telecom that I was teaching in the early 1990’s. I was doing the exercise that I described in the previous post and said “One of the things you will tell your grand kids is that back in 1993, if you were expecting a phone call, you had to be by the phone to get it.” Of course, back in 1993 cell phones were still a curiosity, very big and very expensive. I went on to say, “In the future, you will carry your phone around with you and the network will find you.”

Well this was just too much for these practically minded MBA students. They put down their pen, folded their arms across there chests, and refused to even take notes on an idea as preposterous as this. After a few minutes of looks, ranging from curious to disdainful, the challenges began.

First, the practical concerns,

“Phones are way to big to carry around”

“And the portable ones are far too expensive for everyone to have one”

Then the some deeper issues,

“When I am away from the phone, I want to be away from it.”

“Yes, I don’t want to be accessible 24/7”

“What about privacy? Isn’t ‘having the network find you’ a violation of personal privacy?”

And, finally, the real issue,

“I just don’t see this happening,”

Of course, since we know how this turned out, we find this resistance amusing. Today, many people would go into shock if they had to give up their cell phone for a day. But, what I really like about this story is that is provides us with several teaching points.

First, no matter how much change people have seen in their past, they don’t think things will change in their future. Science fiction ideas like flying cars don’t bother people because they don’t really think they will happen in any time frame that will concern them. But when you talk about changes that will affect their daily life in profound ways, they just resist the ideas.

Second, this resistance always takes the form of talking points. On any given technology there seems to be a standard set of talking points that people use to comfort themselves. It isn’t about the probability of the technology being developed or catching on. It is about preserving one’s comfort with the known.

Thirds, one of the biggest mistakes people make when considering the value of a future technology is that they evaluate the technology in the context of the present rather than in the context of the future that the technology helps to create. Had these students known about texting, cool apps, Siri, taking photos or customized ringtones they may have felt differently about the prospective technology.

The pattern here is that you cannot rely on the opinions of people in the present to help you assess if a new technology will catch on.